The best shot of late October snow so far is headed our way, as ran changes to snow and lowers down the mountain side tonight.

Low pressure expected to track northward up the Connecticut River producing a wide swath of rain, but, tonight the intensification process coupled with colder air swinging in on the back side of the storm system, should lower the snow level down to the valley floor. At that point the best moisture fields will have moved north into Canada, but a strong west to northwesterly flow will set the stage for up-slope snows. As the cold moist air rams up against the Green Mountains, several inches of snow will fall overnight and continue into Wednesday.

Click for expanded view.

Due to the high water content I’m going for about 5” to 10” of new snow with the up-slope event. ***If the snow level lowers faster and colder air arrives earlier ,  we might see better than 10 inches on the upper 2/3rds of Jay Peak. The snow is likely to be very wet and heavy in nature, sticking to trees and signs and power lines.  The wind velocities will be topping out around 45 mph later tonight and especially tomorrow producing rime icing and at times near blizzard conditions on the mountain with wind chills down to the single digits at times.

A weak area of higher pressure should work into the region with partial afternoon sunshine later in the day Thursday. At that time Jay Peak will be beautifully white.

Roger Hill
Weathering Heights

Accumulating amounts are still in question but we at looking at the best shot of late October snow so far and skiable snow on the mountain.

The jet stream buckling with deepening trough of lower pressure and much colder air aloft and at the surface was taking place across the Great Lakes. In response, a warmer train of air across western Atlantic was organizing. This train of air will begin to gather plenty of moisture as it presses northward Tuesday pushing in rain.

Low pressure should track northward and a bit northwestward toward the Maine NH border region and eventually near Sherbrook Quebec while intensifying. The intensification process will lower the snow level but the arrival of colder air may wait until Tuesday evening. At that point the best moisture fields will have moved north into Canada.

So the WRAP-BACKLASH of moisture coupled with sharply falling temperatures are likely to be the main influence with UP-SLOPING snows on Jay Peak.

Right now I’m going for 4” to 8” with the up-slope event. ***If the snow level lowers faster and colder air arrives earlier ,  we might see better than 10 inches on the mountain just slightly above base lodge level, but this remains to be seen just yet. The snow is likely to be very wet and heavy in nature, sticking to trees and signs and power lines.  This also poses possible power outages with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph from the west and northwest.

Wednesday could out to be a ski day with frequent up sloping snow showers across Jay Peak. Enter lake effect plumes coming off Lake Huron and there might be some enhancement to keep accumulating snows going into early Thursday.

Roger Hill
Weathering Heights

Yeah what they said.  If you don’t like it cold, windy and snowy you should probably stay home.  Complete article on matadortrips.com

I’m expecting roughly 2 to 3” at the top to perhaps lowest one third of the mountain and trace to an inch down to about 1500 feet  elevation…not much below that. All of this by about 8 AM tomorrow morning. Now, In a best case scenario we might get lucky crank out 3 to 4 at the top but that might be stretching things, with this early go around.

Rain mixed with wet snow flakes is about all for the valleys Wednesday morning change back to rain showers down below as the snow level briefly rises slightly then falls again down to the valley floor for a rather cold and slowly clearing out on Wednesday night. Models have been taking away some of the moisture on the backside of this system to a small degree.

Winds might be a bit brutal on the back side of the low pressure system later tonight out of the north and last into Wednesday and gusty to around 30 mph.

Will it be enough to take a few runs? Drooling? You decide?  But have your rock skis.

Wednesday - Those northerly winds will “up slope” with lingering mountain snow showers during the day perhaps an additional inch possible before dark. We are talking an early “ELEVATION STORM” here – exciting yes but not a big dump.

Temperatures will eventually warm up a tad with clearing skies and higher pressure to build into the region later in the week.

I want to also let you know of some more “teaser” snow showers to hit the Northern Greens Sunday night into early next week. The season is young and its way early yet.

Roger Hill
Weathering Heights

Snow heading our way next week. Check it out:

Weather patterns impacting Jay

So I had to go up 4 stories yesterday to get images and perspectives from what will be our new Clubhouse-scheduled to begin construction next Spring. Here are some of the views.

Steve on the crane

Brian and Bill

The Sky Haus

Fall Foliage

So we were ranked the best resort in the East by Skiing Magazine. Seriously, it’s right here. Oh and here’s our latest brand ad.  The folks that work at our agency, which we can’t talk about publicly as that would make them less edgy, are smarter than we are.

Copy reads: At another resort, they’re questioning whether to tip the ski valet. But up here, no one questions anything.

Hey if you’re in the area, stop by T Bones restaurant/bar in Colchester this Saturday night. Good food and Tram Ale specials, plus various Jay Peak folks will be around with Jay gear, Season Pass specials and the like. It’s open mike too so if you’re in the mood, you can have at that- as well.